Meteorologists are forecasting an unusually busy hurricane season starting this month — and that could mean flooding in New York City.
Scientists at the National Weather Service confidently anticipate “above-normal” hurricane activity along the Atlantic Ocean, with an estimated total of 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Around half those storms could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher, including four to seven that are category 3 or worse. Near-record ocean temperatures are a major factor in what could be a very wet summer in New York City. Experts said there is a high risk of destructive floods and high winds that could reach the metro area.
“Whether it's a direct hit by a hurricane or the leftover remnants of the hurricane, the flooding is going to be really a bad problem,” said Mark Wysocki, a climatologist and lecturer at Cornell University. “I feel really bad for some of these cities, New York City, Binghamton, Albany, Syracuse – they're not adapted for this kind of heavy rainfall.”
Increasing ocean heat in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea translates to more fuel for intensifying storms. The storms are also influenced by West African monsoons, which can cause stronger and longer-lasting Atlantic hurricanes.
While the city is unlikely to get a hurricane, it’s at the mercy of intense winds and extreme rainfall and coastal flooding that are left over from hurricanes or powerful storms that have waned once they’ve reached the city. Although Hurricane Sandy was no longer considered a hurricane by the time it made landfall in New Jersey in October 2012, it still caused $19 billion in damage in New York City alone.
“The stronger the hurricane, stronger the winds, the greater the tidal effects are going to be in terms of the storm surge,” Wysocki said. “That means coastal flooding, and also flooding from the rainfall because obviously with warmer temperatures the air can hold more water, but more importantly, the ocean is warmer, so it's evaporating more water into the air.”
Daniel Brown, branch chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit at the National Hurricane Center, urged people to begin thinking about preparing for big storms.
“That is really the highest forecast that the NOAA seasonal forecast has ever been, and there's also pretty high confidence [that the] season is going to be pretty active,” Brown said. “Now is the time to really start thinking about preparedness efforts, what you and your family would do if there's a hurricane threat.”
Wysocki suggested beginning with an evacuation plan, but also stocking homes with bottled water and food supplies in case leaving is not a safe option and there is a power outage. NOAA also recommends that residents check their insurance coverage to know in advance what to expect if property is damaged or lost.
Most of all, keep up with the weather reports.
“I think people should start planning ahead, making sure they know what their escape routes are going to be,” Wysocki said.
The National Weather Service will release an updated Atlantic hurricane forecast in early August, just before the season peaks and also the time when the city expects to get the brunt of storms.
