Machine-backed Democrats have big NJ primary wins, even without the 'line'

Incumbent New Jersey Democratic congress members who were supported by party bosses took easy wins in Tuesday’s primary race — defying expectations that they would be vulnerable when a court tossed aside a century-old ballot system that political machines have long used to boost their favored candidates.

But political analysts and activists on the frontlines of the battle over New Jersey's "county line" ballot layout say ditching the design could still chip away at the influence of the state's powerful county political committees in years to come, creating more competitive primary races, and drawing more and better candidates into the contests.

In the state’s 9th Congressional District, Bill Pascrell — who has been in Congress for more than 25 years — beat the Syrian-born mayor of Prospect Park, Mohamed Khairullah, by a roughly 3-1 margin. Pascrell took more than 76% of the vote counted by about 8:15 Wednesday morning, even though Khairullah galvanized the district’s large Arab-American and Muslim communities — criticizing Pascrell for supporting Israel’s continued war in Gaza. Pascrell will now face Republican Billy Prempeh, who took a 3-1 victory over Hector Castillo in their party’s primary. The district includes much of Bergen County and Passaic County, as well as parts of Hudson.

“He's been here forever. I know him personally," Maria Martinez, 54, said of Pascrell. She is an accountant, serves in the military and lives in the neighborhood where Pascrell grew up. "He's a great person and he always has my vote."

Rep. Rob Menendez was thought to be vulnerable in the 8th Congressional District after his father, Sen. Bob Menendez was indicted, and the Democratic Party establishment called for the elder Menendez to resign. But that same establishment supported the son’s reelection campaign. He defeated Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla 54% to 36% as of the latest count Wednesday morning, even though Bhalla had the support of progressive activists and reformers who saw an opportunity to defeat the Hudson County machine. Rob Menendez will run this fall against Republican Anthony Valdes , who ran unopposed for the GOP nomination.

And as expected, Rep. Andy Kim won the Democratic nomination to replace Sen. Menendez, with about three-quarters of the vote, leaving activists Patricia Campos-Medina and Lawrence Hamm to split the remainder.

“The main thing, and I really want to give credit here, is that it's about the people,” Kim told Gothamist. “All these people that were willing to stand up and say, ‘Give Andy a chance.’”

Kim will face Republican Curtis Bashaw in the November election — a Cape May hotel developer, who defeated Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner 46% to 39 for their party’s nomination, as of Wednesday morning.

Kim’s campaign left open his congressional seat in the 3rd District. Assemblymember Herb Conaway won the Democratic nomination Tuesday night over Assemblymember Carol Murphy. He’ll face Republican Dr. Rajesh Mohan in the general election.

Did killing the ‘county line’ matter?

This was the first primary where Democratic ballots couldn’t use the “county line” design, which lets county party organizations group their endorsed candidates for various offices together, typically conferring them a large advantage with primary voters. Kim challenged the practice in federal court and a judge awarded a temporary injunction in late March that kept Democrats from using the system this year. That didn’t affect Republican ballots or dictate how ballots will look in future years.

But the fight set Kim’s ultimate primary victory in motion when, days before that ruling, First Lady Tammy Murphy dropped out of the race. Despite having racked up the most important Democratic Party endorsements in the state, polls indicated Murphy was losing support among actual voters.

Rutgers political scientist Julia Sass Rubin’s research found the “county line” design gave candidates a 35% advantage in 2020’s primaries. But it hadn't been clear what affect the change to the ballot design might have on this year’s races. The court decision came after the deadline to enter the primary, so only those candidates already running could benefit. And political analysts say often, viable candidates don’t even enter primaries if they don’t believe they’ll secure the county line placement from political leaders.

Rubin said it will be hard to measure the impact of Tuesday’s election because not only was the court decision late in the process, but it’s unclear how future ballots will be laid out. A separate case could determine whether the county line can be used on ballots going forward. Lawmakers in Trenton, many of them beneficiaries of the county-line system, have said they’re open to redesigning the ballots.

“Most political actors and donors are waiting to see how this issue plays out over the next few years before doing anything that may upset the county party organizations,” Sass Rubin said. “Does the county line come back after the June 2024 primary or does another bad ballot replace it?”

Antoinette Miles, director of the New Jersey Working Families Alliance — a progressive plaintiff in the ongoing county line court case — said she believes Tuesday's election still marks a “watershed moment for democracy in New Jersey.”

“We still have the biggest reform of our political system in nearly a century. And I think that our entire political conversation in New Jersey has changed,” she said.

She noted party organizations have well-built infrastructure for supporting candidates and driving turnout, and that advantage isn’t going away any time soon.

”Those who are looking to take on county party organizations know that they're going to have to really build that serious infrastructure to really be able to compete,” she said.

But even so, Miles said she believes just removing the county line ballot design will bring in more candidates, more primary challenges and “allow fresh blood to enter the political system where it hasn't before.”

Biden vs. ‘uncommitted’

President Joe Biden easily won the New Jersey Democratic primary Tuesday. But pro-Palestinian activists had organized a protest vote against Biden’s support for Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, placing uncommitted delegates on the ballot. Biden still captured 88.5% of the vote, as of the count around 8:15 a.m. Wednesday.

The protest vote gained the most support, not surprisingly, in Passaic County, which has one of the largest numbers of Arab-Americans and Muslims in the country — including the nation’s second-largest Palestinian community. There, 18% voted for the “uncommitted” option as of Wednesday morning. In Middlesex County, nearly 14% voted for it as well.

Saeed Abassi, of Paterson in Passaic County, said he and his wife voted for the uncommitted delegates.

“The exterior policy is what mattered for us. We have to end this conflict as soon as possible,” he said.

William Vasquez, 65, of Paterson, voted for the president even though he has concerns about Israel’s continued bombing of Gaza.

“I was thinking at this moment, it's like they want to give a free pass to the other candidate to come in,” he said. He said he was worried a vote for “uncommitted” would open the door to a Trump victory in November.

Martinez, the Paterson voter who described her support for Pascrell, said she also voted for Biden and was unaware of the campaign to cast a vote for uncommitted delegates.

Martinez said the issue that is most important to her is the economy. “And mostly not getting Trump elected. I just, I can't, I can't. It's just no.”

Trump wins … and loses

In the Republican primary, it was a mixed result for former President Donald Trump. He ran uncontested and won the nomination, despite having been convicted of 34 felonies in New York last week.

But he’d endorsed longtime MAGA Republican Serrano Glassner for Senate over the more moderate Bashaw, who supported Chris Christie’s past presidential campaigns and only recently endorsed Trump for election in 2024.

“It’s time for a political outsider who can deliver results,” Bashaw said Tuesday night, after securing the GOP nomination. “We can’t keep sending the same old politicians to Washington and expect the same unacceptable results. And New Jersey families deserve better than this one-party Democratic monopoly that has represented them for far too long in Washington D.C.”

Kim … vs. Bashaw vs. … Menendez?

Kim announced his run for the Senate last September, the day after Sen. Menendez was indicted on charges of bribery, corruption and aiding a foreign government.

“Jumping in the day after the indictment of the senator, I think it showed the level of energy that I was willing to bring to the table and how compelled I felt,” Kim said. “That just immediately galvanized a lot of energy.”

Menendez is currently on trial but he filed paperwork Monday to run as an independent in November, which could make him a spoiler in Kim’s race against the Republican.

“I will say that I am very concerned about the ability [of Democrats] to hold the Senate majority,” Kim said. “It's certainly going to get more complicated with Senator Menendez in the mix. But, you know, I've been the best performing Democrat in New Jersey against Republicans at the federal level.”

Kim won his first two Congressional elections against well-funded Republicans in a district won by Trump.